What Is The Current Makeup Of The Korean Peninsula Today?

10 Issues to Lookout for on the Korean Peninsula in 2021

Published Jan eight, 2021

Writer: Mark Tokola, Kyle Ferrier, Troy Stangarone, Sang Kim, Juni Kim, Yong Kwon

Category: North korea, South korea, Japan, China, Economics, U.S. Foreign Policy

We were reminded last year that it can be difficult to anticipate the events that will dominate any given yr. As 2020 began, few people expected focus of the earth or the Korean Peninsula to be on a global pandemic, but that is how the twelvemonth unfolded.

South korea has handled the pandemic relatively well with lower infection rates and deaths than most developed countries. In contrast, Democratic people's republic of korea continues to merits that it has not had a case of COVID-xix, but the lockdown required to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in Democratic people's republic of korea has come up with a heavy price for North korea's trade with Prc and the balance of the earth.

Despite the effort of scientists and regime officials around the world to expedite the development and distribution of a vaccine, COVID-19 volition remain the dominant effect in 2021.

But other changes will shape the new year's day as well. One clear break with 2020 will exist the inauguration of Joe Biden as President in the United States. Later on years of an "America First" foreign policy, Biden's presidency will alter the United States' relationship with Republic of korea and the nature of ongoing talks with Democratic people's republic of korea over its nuclear program. Other issues, such every bit climate change, volition also receive heightened attention from the incoming assistants in 2021.

With that in mind, here are 10 issues related to North Korea, Due south Korean politics, and U.S.-Korea relations to follow that will have an bear upon on the Korean peninsula in the yr to come:

Due north Korea and COVID-xix

While in that location is much speculation regarding the incoming Biden administration's North korea policy, the dominant issue for the regime in Pyongyang volition exist COVID-nineteen, not nuclear negotiations with the United States.

In tardily Jan of 2019, North Korea close its border with China and the rest of the earth to forestall the spread of the coronavirus. The closure of the border has resulted in decline of North Korean exports and imports by over 75 percent from 2019. If Pyongyang maintains its edge closure until the population has enough vaccines to reach herd immunity, trade numbers volition likely expect the same in 2021.

Despite the development of new vaccines to inoculate populations and North Korea'due south participation in the COVAX plan to provide vaccines to developing countries, Pyongyang is likely to continue to face a shortage of vaccines. COVAX is only designed to inoculate xx percentage of a land's population by the end of 2021. If it is unable to obtain additional vaccines from China or Russia, Pyongyang will confront the same conundrum information technology did in 2020 – open its borders to trade and risk the spread of COVID-19 or maintain their closure and deal with the economic consequences?

Biden Assistants's Northward Korea Policy

When U.S. president-elect Joe Biden assumes role later this calendar month, he will be faced with a North Korean trouble that has dogged U.Southward. presidents since the 1990's. While there has non been a N Korean nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test since 2017, Northward Korea's nuclear ammunition is as robust as ever and remains a critical and unpredictable threat to the U.s.a. and its allies.

While specifics of the Biden administration's North Korea policy are expected to exist ironed out in the coming months, Biden's extensive feel as U.S. Senator and Vice President entails a probable traditional diplomatic approach compared to President Trump's unorthodox personal appointment with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Biden himself called Trump's meetings with Kim a "vanity project" and one Biden advisor indicated "the era of honey letters will be over" in speaking about the many flattering messages sent betwixt Trump and Kim. Biden has expressed openness to the continued utilise of U.Southward. sanctions and has stated his commitment to North korea's denuclearization. Biden's emphasis on restoring alliance trust also indicates a preference for a multilateral approach to Due north Korea, which differs from Trump's preference for direct bilateral talks.

South korea's Efforts to Navigate U.S.-China Contest

While Joe Biden is poised to walk back much of Trump'south foreign policy, the intensified rivalry with Beijing is here to stay. For South Korea, this means more of a sustained endeavor to discover an equilibrium between its almost important security partner in the U.S. and its largest trading partner as well every bit a histrion crucial to resolving the North Korea issue in Red china.

The upside with Biden, however, is that he has shown more of an involvement in working with regional partners in areas exterior of traditional security issues and appears to favor a more qualified competition with Prc. For South Korea – which has stressed cooperation forth economic, climate, and more recently public wellness lines in its Indo-Pacific approach – this should be a welcomed change and help to ease some of the pressure from the U.S. to play a larger role militarily in areas such equally the South China Sea.

Notwithstanding, it's unlikely to all be smooth sailing ahead. Greater recognition from Washington could come with greater expectations for Seoul in endeavors that could be seen as containing China. Additionally, of particular business is a U.S.-led attempt among like-minded countries to decouple value bondage in high tech industries with Mainland china, which would hit the lesser-line of major Southward Korean conglomerates.

Can Republic of korea and Japan Improve Relations?

Since 2018, the Due south Korea-Nihon relationship has rapidly deteriorated as historical and trade issues marred past attempts towards reconciliation. Controversy over the Korean Supreme Court's ruling on Japanese compensation for Korean forced wartime labor in October 2018 spiraled into the economic and security spheres, including Japan's decision in 2019 to delist S Korea from its preferential trading partner "white listing" and talks over terminating the South Korea-Japan military intelligence sharing agreement. The diplomatic impasse between the two countries has been especially concerning for the United States, which both countries share as an ally and ofttimes work together on trilateral bug.

With recent political changes in the region, including Yoshihide Suga condign Nihon's new prime minister and the incoming Biden administration's focus on restoring alliance trust, there is cautious optimism that 2021 may see improvements in South Korea-Japan relations. Several diplomatic overtures in contempo months similar Suga's meeting with a South Korean legislative delegation and South Korean President Moon Jae-in'southward date of one-time Korea-Nippon Parliamentarians' Spousal relationship chairman Kang Chang-il equally ambassador to Japan have signaled a greater willingness by both countries to repair relations. However, underlying historical and trust problems withal remain and requires further actions by both countries to breach the deep dissever betwixt them.

U.S.-South Korea Multilateral Cooperation

The incoming Biden Administration has already signaled that it will opposite form from the Trump Administration'southward disinterest in multilateral cooperation and international institutions. This shift will initially play out in Europe with a renewed U.Due south. commitment to NATO and to cooperation with the Eu. But it will too be important in Asia as the United States seeks to reinforce its traditional bilateral alliances with South korea, Nippon, Australia, and others with reinvigorated networks of regional cooperation.

The Biden team will wish to hear from Seoul how South korea will choose to involve itself in these new multilateral patterns and conversations. One example is the "Quad" of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. Information technology has said that it is open up to future expansion. Some regional discussions will have the goal of nudging Red china towards more rules-based and cooperative behavior. Others volition welcome China'due south interest in dealing with common challenges such as climate change.

Ane difference from previous patterns of multilateralism is that the sometime stardom between security and economic cooperation is disappearing. With the realization by nations that supply bondage, data protection, digital infrastructure, and high technology are as much a thing of national security as are ships, tanks, and armed services aircraft, the agendas for regional organizations are beingness rewritten.

South korea'southward Economy and COVID-19

The success of South Korea's testing-led efforts to command the outbreak of COVID-19 led the country to be a model for others to follow concluding twelvemonth, merely the number of new cases shot up in mid-Nov and have yet to come down. The government has been reluctant to move to a total lockdown over concerns of how it will impact domestic consumption, already sluggish from existing social distancing measures. Vaccinations will certainly help when they start to roll out in Feb, though the pandemic volition likely continue to elevate on the economy through the start half of the year.

Despite this challenge at abode, S Korea is projected to have one of the fastest economic recoveries among advanced economies this year. Most projections accept GDP growing at effectually 3% this year, upward from the about 1% drop in 2020. Much of this growth is expected to be driven past exports from high-tech industries such as semiconductors and other areas the Moon authorities is heavily investing in under the auspices of its New Deal. However, considering how Moon's welfare initiatives take struggled to find their anxiety, information technology may be besides soon to expect dramatic returns on 4th Industrial Revolution spending this twelvemonth.

K-pop Surviving Through the Pandemic

The pandemic devastated many industries, including the music and live amusement manufacture. While COVID restrictions halted alive concerts and world tours for the foreseeable future, K-pop artists establish innovative means to stay engaged with their fans and even expand their global reach.

Major Korean entertainment agencies, especially SM Entertainment and BigHit, quickly adapted to the virtual world and accept set the bar high for at-abode online concert experience. BTS, the world'south biggest ring and TIME'southward 2020 Entertainer of the Year, fix a Guinness World Records for most viewers for a music concert live stream in June, only to break its own record a few months after. Their MAP OF THE SOUL ON:Due east. concert drew about a million concurrent viewers from 191 countries and generated over $45 1000000 in revenue. It was the world's first streaming concert to employ both multi-view and 4K/Hd engineering with augmented reality (AR) and extended reality (XR) engineering. SM Entertainment'southward gratis New year online concert featuring many of its artists, attracted a total of 35.83 million streams from 186 different countries across multiple platforms via YouTube, 5 LIVE, Twitter, TikTok, Facebook, and Japan's KNTV.

Without knowing when large gatherings volition be allowed again, virtual concerts in various forms are likely to continue in 2021. Fans around the world savour the high quality performances for a fraction of the cost at the comfort of their homes. From online concerts to steady physical anthology sales, and topping major music charts, the pandemic hasn't slowed downwardly K-pop and we will continue to see more of information technology in 2021.

Social Welfare and Economic Growth

Republic of korea'south quick response to COVID-xix likely moderated some of the long-term economical impacts that the pandemic will impose on other countries. However, the country's futurity prospects are jeopardized past a frail social safety net that prevents its people from finer participating in the economy. Two big challenges stand out: elderberry poverty and female person labor participation.

2017 data from the System for Economic Co-performance and Development (OECD) revealed that 43.8 percent of Southward Koreans over the historic period of 65 earn less than 50 percent of the median household income. This produces untold tragedies, including the highest elderly suicide rates among OECD countries. On the economic front end, the neglect also curtails the government'southward capacity to promote innovative industries. The fearfulness of displacing elderly workers in traditional occupations (like the taxi service) prevents the government from firmly supporting companies that are exploring promising technologies (like ride-sharing). Some of these socio-political barriers might be overcome if the elderly receive greater economic assurances.

Meanwhile, female labor forcefulness participation in South korea is low. This is a major drag on the economy as both public and private sectors underutilize this highly-educated segment of the population. There are several push factors to this problem, including cultural norms and the gender wage gap (the highest among OECD nations). One of the biggest contributors is the high toll of childcare – which forces Korean women to choose full-time parenting over their careers. There are no uncomplicated solutions to this deep-rooted challenge, but a identify to start would be to promote more affordable childcare services and lowering the cost of education.

South Korea's Boxing with Digital Sex activity Crimes

According to Twitter Korea's 2020 Top Social Keywords in Korea, "Nth room" was the second most mentioned social story after "COVID." Southward Korean society was appalled by the sickening details of sexual exploitation and blackmailing of young women, including minors in the encrypted messenger app Telegram. Meantime, the Southward Korean Ministry of Justice denied the U.S. Section of Justice's the extradition asking for Son Jung-woo, a man behind the largest darknet child pornography website in the world. Son had only served 18 months jail time for his crimes and the national attention on these scandals fueled criticism of the Korean judicial system for its weak legal punishments on sexual criminals.

In response to the public's outcry, the National Assembly passed revised legislation increasing the penalisation for not but possessing merely also viewing illegal sexual images. As of December 31, 2020, over 3,500 suspects were arrested and 245 were imprisoned related to the Telegram cases. The primary ringleader of these cases, Cho Ju-bin was sentenced 40 years in prison and Moon Hyung-wook is waiting for his first trial in 2021. Even with the arrests, similar crimes under different platforms are reportedly notwithstanding ongoing in digital space. Equally the various regime agencies are devoted to eradicate digital sexual crimes, 2021 will be the examination of how the Korean government implements its new policies and response to the persistent only evolving digital sexual crimes.

South korea'due south Push to Become Carbon Neutral

Last fall, South Korean President Moon Jae-in pledged that Republic of korea would work to become carbon neutral past 2050. As one of the world'due south largest carbon emitters, achieving this goal will require South korea to have significant steps to reduce its carbon emissions.

According to the International Energy Agency, South Korea emitted 605.78 one thousand thousand tons of carbon dioxide in 2018, while the Marriage of Concerned Scientists noted that South Korea is the world's 8^th largest emitter of carbon dioxide. With twoscore percent of Republic of korea's power generated by coal, transitioning to renewable energy will exist a key part of reducing South Korea'due south emissions.

The Moon administration has taken steps to reduce South korea'due south dependence on fossil fuels. South Korea plans on retiring thirty coal power plants by 2034 and significantly increasing the production of renewables to cut 193 million tons of carbon emissions by 2030. Key components of this effort include the Green New Bargain and the Hydrogen Roadmap. With lilliputian more than than year left in office for the Moon assistants, 2021 will be an important year for putting Southward Korea on a sustainable path for reducing its carbon emissions.

Kyle Ferrier is Fellow and Managing director of Bookish Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America, Sang Kim is the Director of Public Affairs and Intern Coordinator, Marker Tokola is the Vice President, Juni Kim is the Senior Director for Operations and Engineering science, Yong Kwon is the Director of Communications, and Troy Stangarone Senior Director and Beau. The views expressed hither are the authors' alone.

Image from the South korea's photostream on flickr Creative Commons.